Researchers predict a new solar cycle (Reports)

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Researchers predict a new solar cycle (Reports)
Researchers predict a new solar cycle (Reports)

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311,637
Confirmed
8,454
Deaths
14,828
Recovered

Solar physicists predict another weak 11-year solar cycle ahead. At the same time, they expect the coming cycle to break the trend of weakening solar activity seen over the past 4 cycles, and they add there’s “no indication we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.”

A NOAA/NASA co-chaired international panel – charged with forecasting the upcoming 11-year solar cycle, Solar Cycle 25 – released a preliminary forecast on April 5, 2019. The consensus is that Cycle 25 will be similar in size to the current cycle, Cycle 24; in other words, it’s likely to be weak. These solar experts said they expect solar minimum – the period when the sun is least active – no earlier than July 2019 and no later than September 2020. They expect sunspot maximum to occur no earlier than the year 2023 and no later than 2026, with a minimum peak sunspot number of 95 and a maximum of 130. That’s in contrast to the average number of sunspots, which typically ranges from 140 to 220 sunspots per solar cycle. The panel also said in a statement that it has:

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… high confidence that the coming cycle should break the trend of weakening solar activity seen over the past four cycles.

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Panel co-chair Lisa Upton, solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp., said:

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Canada 14,018 233 2,603
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Portugal 10,524 266 75
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S. Korea 10,237 183 6,463
Israel 8,018 46 477
Sweden 6,443 373 205
Norway 5,645 62 32
Australia 5,635 34 585
Russia 4,731 43 333
Ireland 4,604 137 25
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Denmark 4,077 161 1,283
Poland 3,627 79 134
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India 3,588 99 229
Malaysia 3,483 57 915
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Japan 3,139 77 514
Philippines 3,094 144 57
Pakistan 2,880 45 170
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Saudi Arabia 2,370 29 420
Thailand 2,169 23 674
Indonesia 2,092 191 150
Finland 1,927 25 300
Mexico 1,890 79 633
Panama 1,801 46 13
Peru 1,746 73 914
Greece 1,673 68 78
Serbia 1,624 44 54
South Africa 1,585 9 95
Dominican Republic 1,578 77 17
UAE 1,505 10 125
Argentina 1,451 43 279
Iceland 1,417 4 396
Colombia 1,406 32 85
Qatar 1,325 3 109
Algeria 1,251 130 90
Ukraine 1,251 32 25
Singapore 1,189 6 297
Croatia 1,126 12 119
Egypt 1,070 71 241
Estonia 1,039 13 59
New Zealand 1,039 1 156
Slovenia 977 22 79
Morocco 960 66 69
Iraq 878 56 259
Hong Kong 862 4 173
Armenia 822 7 57
Lithuania 811 11 7
Moldova, Republic of 752 12 29
Hungary 733 34 66
Diamond Princess 712 11 619
Bahrain 688 4 423
Bosnia 626 21 30
Cameroon 555 9 17
Tunisia 553 18 5
Kazakhstan 551 6 36
Latvia 533 1 1
Bulgaria 522 18 37
Azerbaijan 521 5 32
Lebanon 520 17 54
Macedonia 483 17 20
Kuwait 479 1 93
Slovakia 471 1 10
Andorra 466 17 21
Belarus 440 5 53
Costa Rica 435 2 13
Cyprus 426 9 33
Uruguay 400 5 93
Taiwan 363 5 54
Afghanistan 337 7 15
Réunion 334 0 40
Albania 333 20 99
Jordan 323 5 74
Burkina Faso 318 16 66
Oman 298 2 61
Uzbekistan 298 2 25
Cuba 288 6 15
Honduras 268 22 6
Channel Islands 262 5 13
San Marino 259 32 27
Côte d'Ivoire 245 1 25
Vietnam 240 0 90
Mauritius 227 7 7
Senegal 219 2 72
Palestinian Territory, Occupied 217 1 21
Ghana 214 5 31
Nigeria 214 4 25
Malta 213 0 2
Montenegro 203 2 1
Faroe Islands 181 0 99
Georgia 170 1 36
Sri Lanka 166 5 29
Bolivia 157 10 2
Venezuela 155 7 52
DRC 154 18 3
Kyrgyzstan 147 1 9
Martinique 145 3 27
Niger 144 8 0
Brunei 135 1 66
Guadeloupe 134 7 24
Mayotte 134 2 14
Kenya 126 4 4
Isle of Man 126 1 0
Cambodia 114 0 50
Guinea 111 0 5
Paraguay 104 3 12
Trinidad and Tobago 103 6 1
Rwanda 102 0 0
Gibraltar 98 0 52
Liechtenstein 77 1 0
Bangladesh 70 8 30
Madagascar 70 0 0
Monaco 66 1 3
Aruba 64 0 1
El Salvador 62 3 2
Guatemala 61 2 15
French Guiana 61 0 22
Jamaica 55 3 7
Barbados 52 0 0
Djibouti 50 0 8
Uganda 48 0 0
Macao 44 0 10
Mali 41 3 1
Togo 41 3 17
French Polynesia 40 0 0
Zambia 39 1 2
Ethiopia 38 0 4
Bermuda 37 0 14
Cayman Islands 35 1 1
Saint Martin 29 2 7
Eritrea 29 0 0
Bahamas 28 4 0
Sint Maarten 25 4 6
Guyana 24 4 0
Congo 22 2 2
Gabon 21 1 1
Myanmar 21 1 0
Haiti 21 0 1
Tanzania, United Republic of 20 1 3
Maldives 19 0 13
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 18 1 0
Guinea-Bissau 18 0 0
New Caledonia 17 0 1
Syrian Arab Republic 16 2 2
Benin 16 0 2
Equatorial Guinea 16 0 1
Antigua and Barbuda 15 0 0
Dominica 14 0 0
Mongolia 14 0 2
Namibia 14 0 3
Saint Lucia 14 0 1
Fiji 12 0 0
Grenada 12 0 0
Curaçao 11 1 5
Greenland 11 0 3
Lao People's Democratic Republic 11 0 0
Angola 10 2 2
Sudan 10 2 2
Liberia 10 1 3
Suriname 10 1 0
Mozambique 10 0 1
Seychelles 10 0 0
MS Zaandam 9 2 0
Zimbabwe 9 1 0
Nepal 9 0 1
Chad 9 0 0
Saint Kitts and Nevis 9 0 0
Swaziland 9 0 0
Central African Republic 8 0 0
Cabo Verde 7 1 0
Holy See (Vatican City State) 7 0 0
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 7 0 1
Somalia 7 0 1
Mauritania 6 1 2
Montserrat 6 0 0
St. Barth 6 0 1
Nicaragua 5 1 0
Bhutan 5 0 2
Turks and Caicos Islands 5 0 0
Botswana 4 1 0
Gambia 4 1 2
Belize 4 0 0
Malawi 4 0 0
Sierra Leone 4 0 0
Western Sahara 4 0 0
Anguilla 3 0 0
British Virgin Islands 3 0 0
Burundi 3 0 0
Caribbean Netherlands 2 0 0
Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 1 0 0
Papua New Guinea 1 0 0
Timor-Leste 1 0 0
China 81,669 3,329 76,964

We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak cycle, preceded by a long, deep minimum. The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24 means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum

The Maunder minimum is a period of much-reduced sunspot activity observed between the years 1645 and 1715. It coincided with the coldest part of what’s commonly called the Little Ice Age (c. 1500–1850) in the Northern Hemisphere, when, according to historians:

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… the Thames River in England froze over during winter, Viking settlers abandoned Greenland, and Norwegian farmers demanded that the Danish king recompense them for lands occupied by advancing glaciers.

No one understands exactly how or even if reduced sunspots cause cooler weather on Earth, but speculation abounds. The question of the sun-Earth connection will not be so pressing if – following Cycle 25 – solar activity returns to normal, as these solar physicists suggest it will.

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